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M94A0592.TXT
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1994-10-21
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Document 0592
DOCN M94A0592
TI Trend analysis & back-protection analysis of Qld HIV data.
DT 9412
AU Magon H; Ree GH; Kennedy J; Cornell V; AIDS Medical Unit, Brisbane.
SO Annu Conf Australas Soc HIV Med. 1993 Oct 28-30;5:90 (poster no. 31).
Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE ASHM5/94349063
AB Two widely popular methods for predicting the future incidence of AIDS
cases were applied to the Queensland HIV database. Trend analysis gave
high to low estimates of AIDS cases & deaths. Estimated new AIDS cases
over the three year period 1993 to 1995 ranged from 258 to 348 with AIDS
deaths ranging from 184 to 276. Several planning scenarios are possible.
In the case of maximum deaths and minimum new cases the net number of
AIDS patients in Queensland would decline by 18 over the three years
1993 to 1995. Should the converse occur, i.e. maximum new cases and
minimum deaths there could be 164 additional cases over this three year
period. Back-projection analysis was used to estimate the number of HIV
infection during the period 1982 to 1991. Our analysis shows the peak of
the infection occurred in 1984 (392 cases) followed by 1985 (196 cases).
The total pool estimated at 1383 to end 1991 (Queensland HIV database
lists 1195 cases).
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/MORTALITY Cause of
Death Forecasting Human HIV Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/MORTALITY HIV
Seroprevalence/*TRENDS *Information Systems Models, Statistical
Queensland/EPIDEMIOLOGY MEETING ABSTRACT
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).